Japan and Brazil, according to some media reports, Japan's Nippon Steel and Brazil's CVRD to negotiate an agreement on 2010 iron ore, FOB powder ore prices rose 98% to 110 U.S. dollars, the highest grade Carajas fine ore rose 114.38 percent to 122.2 U.S. dollars, execution time for the April to June. If the report is true, it means that in 2010 China's steel enterprises will face greater cost pressures, but also a long association changed to quarterly from annual price increase in steel prices is also difficult to control costs, fear of domestic steel prices in trouble again.
This year's iron ore negotiations and in 2008 similar to the
"This year some of the steel city, and in 2008 is somewhat similar," Beijing Ling Feng, general manager of Steel Materials Supply Co., the case-chu told reporters: "The same demand has not improved when the mine through continuous speculation and manipulation in the spot market, pushing up the iron ore expected price difference is this year's economic situation and the gradual upward, while the deep financial crisis of 2008 economic downturn situation. "
Feng-chu said is not true, the occasion of the 2008 iron ore negotiations, the domestic steel prices began to rise quickly, and with the spot ore prices push each other to form a situation, though it was the beginning of the financial crisis has now Ni side, but the iron ore Long Association prices remain substantially higher. June 23, 2008, Baosteel and Rio Tinto on the 2008 annual PB powder ore, fine ore and Yang Di PB lump ore benchmark prices reached a consensus on an annual basis in 2007 were up 79.88%, 79.88% and 96.5%; Subsequently, Baosteel and CVRD reached 65% of the annual or long association mining.
Similarly, in March 2010 a general increase in momentum for the domestic steel prices there, according to Steel Information Research Center, Market Monitoring, March 29, 25mm rebar major cities an average price of 4315 yuan, compared with the same period in February rose 525 yuan; 6.5mm High-wire major cities in the domestic average price of 4368 yuan, compared with the same period in February rose 521 yuan; 5.5mm hot-rolled and cold plate 1mm average price in major cities compared with the same period in February were up 450 yuan and 319 yuan. While imports of iron ore spot price reached 160 U.S. dollars.
2008 iron ore negotiations have been completed less than 3 months, in September that year the global spread of financial crisis began, the domestic steel prices drop as a drop of more than 60%, imports of iron ore spot prices have also dropped to 60 once from 180 U.S. dollars U.S. dollars. The domestic steel industry faces industry-wide losses, while the mining area has benefited greatly.
Iron ore negotiations in 2010 there were no precise information, Japan and Brazil, and has not been reached or an official authority to confirm, but the three major mines as a commercial institution, the pursuit of maximizing the interests of its ultimate goal. While in 2010 the economic situation does not seem to imagine the beautiful people. Greece and Iceland, the crisis is likely to make the financial crisis hit the second bottom, while the mining area is no doubt exacerbated exorbitant demands of domestic steel prices as well as the risk of the entire national economy.
Spot ore import prices would fall
At present the number of imported iron ore spot price bubble? Match the current steel prices and the economic situation do? Of iron ore negotiations in 2010 after the end of the price of iron ore and steel prices will decrease? These problems have led the industry concerns. A number of industry estimates of iron ore spot prices will decline in the second half.
Beijing Large Steel Trade Company executives have privately said frankly, the current international and domestic economic situation is still grim, still to recover, but the state also aware of the economic stimulus plan by the negative impact, while the introduction of a mechanism is being gradually implemented, another in 2010, the formation of global trade protectionism and export restrictions would be expected that the domestic market for iron ore demand will fall, "the current iron ore price of water very clear."
CITIC Securities researcher Hsi-by to judge the last two years due to a substantial increase in domestic investment and foreign steel atrophy, leading to a sharp domestic steel demand and output growth, which led to a substantial increase in imports of iron ore, but with the gradual adjustment of economic structure, the national team, the domestic sharp decline in demand for iron ore will in turn drive the price down.
Although the prices of imported ore and steel market, spot prices surged state of affairs, but the situation is not optimistic about the transaction. Steel Information Research Center, according to market monitoring, as of March 29, India, 63.5% fine ore quoted at 160-163 U.S. dollars, the domestic main ports total imports of iron ore stocks 69.54 million tons; March spot ore imports in China since the volume of about 11 million tons, the actual volume in February compared with a decrease of 9 million tons in January compared with a decrease of 22 million tons; In addition, in March and the country's freight prices continued to fall on the 29th Baltic Dry bulk freight index BDI fell 79, BPI fell 158, BSI dropped 110. From the volume and sea freight imports of ore can be seen that the actual transaction is not satisfactory, indicating iron ore prices have affected sales, do not support the iron ore prices continue to rise, there is the possibility of a small decline.
Mine would be unfavorable national economic development, high-priced
Iron ore prices for Chinese steel industry and even the healthy development of the whole national economy is undoubtedly harmful to profits, iron ore, iron and steel production will increase up business costs, so that the domestic steel industry once again in high-cost times. Steel Information Research Center, according to the Kingdom of clear description, according to the Japanese steel prices in 2009 and three co-ore mines of the long-pricing, if the 2010 price of a long association mining rose 100%, according to the grade of iron ore 62.5% calculated excluding shipping costs per tonne of ore costs will rise 650 yuan.
According to China Iron and Steel Industry Association in 2010 for the first time industry information conference, figures released into statistics, 68 medium-sized iron and steel enterprises in 2009 a profit of 55.388 billion yuan (including investment income from the reversal of impairment loss of 16.752 billion yuan), down 31.43% over the previous year. The medium-sized steel mill in 2009 full-year sales profit rate of just 2.43%. Three mines have achieved the same period 100% of the profits.
Clearly, rising costs is not limited to iron and steel industry, iron and steel industry is known as the country name of economic "food" reputation, iron ore prices to increase steel production in this and push up steel market prices, and thus give the lower and steel-related manufacturing industries a tremendous the cost burden to the already weak domestic demand, China's economy will suffer even more serious trauma.
Guo-Qing Wang believes that as the iron ore price rise pushed up the cost of steel, iron and steel production costs of enterprises will be the downstream transmission, in turn will affect the entire manufacturing and infrastructure construction cost increases of raw materials to make cars, appliances and other manufacturing markets prices, will ultimately foot the bill by the consumer. In addition, the costs to the process, resulting in higher product prices downstream related industries and will further curb consumer demand to start the process is not conducive to the stability of the steel city.
At the same time, Wang Ching noted that, while iron ore prices, the steel companies can increase ex-factory approach to the transfer of cost pressures, but in the current high inventory, high-yield market conditions, supply exceeds demand, the prospects of hope and is not optimistic. At present, the steel market demand has not been fully started, the end user continues to push for the acceptance of higher steel prices need some time, at present even if the short term to push up steel prices go up, and back may also go down.
Iron and steel industry as a basic industry of the national economy, the impact of rising iron ore is not only iron and steel industry and downstream industries and increase the whole national economy can also cause trouble, so clear that the Kingdom to maintain a stable supply of raw materials and reduce the procurement cost is the steel industry chain in various industries that the public wants.
Iron ore negotiations in 2008 after the end of the financial crisis due to increasing depth and a gradual downturn of domestic demand, external exports were severely disrupted, the domestic steel prices began to fall rapidly, many steel firms because the high burden of suffering huge losses in mining; 2010 Although the economy has begun a gradual recovery, but many uncertainties still exist, the high steel prices ore undoubtedly a huge market risks.
How to avoid repeating the mistakes of 2008
Three mines in the face of sky-high claims, the lack of voice and argue that the strength of China's steel enterprises how to deal with? This is not just about human dignity, while maintaining China's national industry development, the relationship between the survival and livelihood of millions of ordinary people, but also a bearing on national development, even the nation's prosperity.
Since 2003, China has been involved in iron ore, due to a lack of initiative in the negotiations, Chinese steel enterprises have to pay out at least the cost of more than 7000 billion yuan, and as Chinese demand for iron ore increased year by year, this "innocent money" will continue expenditures and an increase in the number of China's steel enterprises have a "700 billion" can be spending?
"Now more and more the performance of iron ore negotiations are not starting right'''' 'problem, but''leading role''' problem." Lange Steel Information Research Center Zhang Lin pointed out that the 2009 global 965 million tons of 65% of seaborne iron ore trade flows to China, Japan, less than 11% of the flow, the flow was only 4.4%, South Korea; 2009, China's consumption is equivalent to 6 ore 15 Korea, Japan or the dosage. "Needs a huge disparity can not allow our country to be to maximize consumer surplus, it was the Big Three have seen demand for our ore, rigid, and never compromise."
Fight for dominance in iron ore negotiations, not only to like Japan to increase foreign control of mining efforts, but also increase efforts to develop domestic mines. Zhang Lin believes that efforts to increase domestic exploitation of mines, mining and technology updates, the cultivation of excellent engineers, the relevant departments to support the financing of the domestic mining enterprises to domestic mines comprehensive tax relief, support large domestic mining enterprises to go, etc. are all aspects of China need to work.
In addition, Wang-ching, China's high dependence on foreign iron ore to make iron ore negotiations controlled by others, steel market all year round of negotiations on iron ore reincarnation of ups and downs. At present the industry's hopes standardize the order of iron ore imports in order to mining companies in the form of centralized procurement; In addition, the increased iron and steel enterprises holding foreign investment mining efforts, while strengthening the steel industry, eliminate backward production capacity and structural adjustment efforts, solve the problem of double - pipe under it to the healthy development of iron and steel industry, steel market in order to run smoothly.
