January 12, the weather was cold. Construction Steel morning by the impact of rising steel price adjustment, the intraday price stabilization business mentality is better, but affected by the weather, poor shipping.
The amount of iron and steel prices go up to continue
Construction steel prices alone, steel prices continue to rise this year, one of the many cases. According to the latest data show that the first week of the new year, steel prices whole line. January 1 -7 days, the composite steel price index 147.3 points, compared with last week rose 2.9% in December 2009 rose 7.3%. Among them, Shanghai, Wuhan, Chengdu, Chongqing, Xi'an and other markets the largest rate of increase, with an average of 100 yuan / ton or more; plate a relatively sharp rise in the rate of increase of Kunming, the largest market, rose to 200 yuan / ton; hot market general price rose 70 yuan / ton, cold-rolled up an average of 60 yuan / ton.
And the phase silhouetted against the rising steel prices, domestic steel production continued to the Great Leap Forward. January 11, the latest data show that the nation's major steel mills in late December last year, average daily output of steel soared, of which 1.6454 million tons of crude steel, 1.5614 million tons of pig iron.
However, some unexpected, last year in December, China's steel exports last from negative to positive. According to Customs statistics, in December 2009 steel exports 3.34 million tons, an increase of 49 compared with November tons, with 5.36% increase compared to same period last year; however, in January 2009 -12 months total exports 24.6 million tons, down 58.5 %.
Prices continue to doubt
"The recent hot steel prices comparison, indicating the market to see more iron and steel enterprises, traders confidence rebounded significantly." In the commercial circulation of Productivity Promotion Center analyst Rongliang He said that from the industry point of view, due to the momentum of domestic economic recovery in a relatively clear , the current domestic steel industry will rebound in the downstream demand, such as automobile, real estate and other needs are increasing. From an international economic perspective, the economy seems to gradually pick up, this has created a certain amount of steel prices rebound in market-based. In addition, the recent international crude oil prices have a certain reversal, copper, aluminum and other nonferrous metals and other commodities prices are also rising, which to some extent, led to rising steel prices.
At the same time, Baosteel, Wuhan Iron and Steel and other domestic steel giants have also driven the prices of a number of small and medium domestic steel prices soaring tide. The recent past, many second-tier steel prices frequent price adjustment, coupled with relatively strong inflation expectations, rising steel prices continuing.
"Domestic steel prices rose a certain feel-good factor, which is the basis for steel prices rising steadily. But the latter part of steel, I think it should be cautiously optimistic." Rongliang He said that although the steel is still, but its continuing existence questions. His analysis, from the current macroeconomic environment, the credit crunch may be a problem, and now the intention of Government to control the total credit volume is very obvious, and will continue to use the reserve as a lever to achieve the purpose. Contraction of credit, investment growth slowed, and this will form a certain amount of pressure steel prices.
Although the first quarter of this year, there is still all over the increase in investment projects. But long-term perspective, investment-led growth in the domestic economy has reached a bottleneck for the future is difficult to continue to rely on investment-led economic growth, while domestic consumption is also a government subsidy, which is a disguised investment, said the consumer has been successfully received an investment boost growth baton too early, and this is where the risk of steel. In particular the steel market, demand for short-term worry, but the state has begun to curb the soaring housing prices, the latter part of the real estate market trends will directly affect the construction project, determine the accounting for half of the domestic steel construction steel demand outlook.
"It is worrying that the current iron ore price increases of domestic steel prices rose more than bigger, from this perspective, the latter part of iron ore market risk than steel market." He Rongliang said that iron ore At this point the negotiations began, which means iron ore prices this year, basically a foregone conclusion.
Both rising for steel prices and inventory
In the steel prices have been rising continuously at the same time, domestic steel stocks are also climbing steadily. According to West, this new route of steel spot trading platform data, New Year's first week, around the steel, particularly in the construction steel prices continue to upgrade the whole, the basic trend for the first half of the week up, slowing gains in the latter half weeks and then the callback. The view was expressed that the cause of such phenomenon, in addition to "Dong Chu" hoard factors, some steel mills are also directly or indirectly been involved in hoarding goods, boosting prices.
In the steel prices have been rising continuously at the same time, domestic steel stocks are also climbing steadily. Although the steel industry to continue bullish trend in the late majority, but because of continuing high inventory pressures, traders have been cautious attitude has begun, suggesting that market risk is being generated.
According to the steel spot trading platform data, New Year's first week, around the steel, particularly in the construction steel prices continue to upgrade the whole, the basic trend for the first half of the week up, slowing gains in the latter half weeks and then the callback. Among them, Shanghai steel prices pushed up the region, as of January 8, rebar types specifications on behalf of the price to close at 3,800 yuan / ton, single-week increase 100 yuan / ton; Beijing and Guangzhou region, steel prices are also slightly upward, the two in steel prices were reported at 3830 yuan / ton and 4060 yuan / ton, the increase 30 yuan / ton and 10 yuan / ton.
At the same time, to enter in December has been a growing momentum for weak demand apparent in the first week after the holiday is still lackluster stock continued to increase. Data show that the overall issue Masukura 23.4 thousand tons Rebar in Shanghai, the overall Masukura margin of 3.32%. Shanghai stock market has been building steel holding Masukura 7 consecutive weekly, which has recently been a 4-week Masukura the reduction was more than 3%. North China, Shandong regional steel inventories increased fairly quickly.
The industry analysts said that as the demand years ago, is the traditional off-season, light transaction is a normal phenomenon. But there are also traders to the price increase against the background of continuing high inventory risk expressed concern that the price of the latter half weeks callback is the contradiction between supply and demand performance. "Lack of effective support for the demand, the current rising trend in steel prices is only a unilateral expression of the will's own business, there is no more real meaning." One trader said.
It is reported that currently on the market except for a few large-size quality product scarcity, the supply of various specifications are more abundant than before, there is no shortage of cases. The export side, despite sustained recovery, but has not been substantial improvement in the circumstances, the right to ease the current steel market, high inventory pressure not achieve significant role. According to the latest customs statistics, in December 2009, China's steel exports 3.34 million tons. Although an increase of 49 compared with November tons, total exports from January to December, but was still down 58.5%. Full-year net export of 6.97 million tons, up 84% decline.
In addition, industry sources, the recent traders to the steel mills around the order, the more or less met the contract purchase volume discount of experience, and this become more and more when prices rise more serious. The view was expressed that the cause of such phenomenon, in addition to "Dong Chu" hoard factors, some steel mills are also directly or indirectly been involved in hoarding goods, boosting prices.
