Recently, larger domestic and international macro-economic environment variables, inflation, interest rates, unexpected events Dengjun frequently by the market speculation. Steel prices trend and direction of economic development has always been closely linked, in the current market conditions, the Shanghai Gang after a brief rise will do after finishing?
After a steel prices before the Spring Festival, after a slight rise in the near future oscillation finishing. As the Festival is expected to demand improvement in pre-holiday market has been a degree of speculation in steel prices but Gaokaidizou Festival. The author believes that a number of factors supporting the price of steel in the present vicinity of running, and promoting the factors of rising steel prices will continue to appear at a later stage, Shanghai and steel market outlook is expected to oscillation upstream.
1, steel stocks are expected to drop, demand will significantly improve
Recently, the domestic steel trade, the total weekly circulation of basin inventory are constantly refreshed before, resulting in this phenomenon there are two main reasons. First, because this year, domestic steel supply and demand is expected to improve the pattern of supply exceeding demand will be eased, a large number of railway investment, commercial housing construction and the protection of housing construction will be pulling a lot of rebar and wire rod demand, and production by quick turn over the previous few years, a substantial drop in expectations is based on well-made steel trade companies want to seize this excellent Quotes. Second, because the domestic steel trade and enterprise funds are more flush with cash, inventory financing and other means to use a lot of accumulating inventory. Last year, a total of new loans this year will be nearly 20 trillion yuan, with plenty of funds makes the steel trade and large-scale enterprises have emboldened the stockpile.
Steel under the impetus of such expectations have not opted for cuts and other measures to deal with the recent drop in market, which led to social steel stocks continued to climb, and more than 100% over same period last year. At this point I believe that in the next period of time will gradually be improved, through the analysis of historical data is not difficult to find stocks around the Spring Festival is the fastest growing social rebar for some time, but after a year in March, with the return of warmer weather, gradually started construction units, inventory growth will become smaller, and then will go down, a phenomenon usually within 3 weeks after the holiday occurs. That inventory is now climbing the Spring Festival of factors is only a manifestation of weak future demand can not draw conclusions, and in March, the six million sets of protective housing starts, the second half of last year, large areas of commercial buildings into an area of newly started construction of area and throughout the year 823.5 billion yuan investment in railways official launch will effectively boost the domestic construction steel demand, inventories will decrease the probability of steel up there is very great.
Second, cost-shift pressures still exist, the world faced with rising steel prices
During the Spring Festival, the foreign media reported that China's five major metallurgical companies and BHP Billiton, Rio Tinto Group and Brazil's CVRD to increase iron ore prices to reach an agreement, under this agreement, arrived in the Chinese port iron ore prices will be 62 U.S. dollars per ton last year, raised to 84 dollars, or 40%. The message correctly or not remains to be verified, but the iron ore spot prices have been higher than the price last year, nearly 100% long association could not escape the fact that, while in iron ore prices firm during the period, the domestic environment in which domestic Steel demand in the off-season, steel mills started surface of steel stocks higher and the community are constantly rising. According to the author's analysis, the real steel peak yet to come, in the peak after the advent of steel we are likely to see iron ore prices soar again, it will be rising steel prices afternoon fuse.
At present, the global steel market, the status quo for the production of a gradual recovery, and gradually raise steel prices. According to the U.S. Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) of the statistical data, February 20 ended the week the U.S. domestic steel producers capacity utilization of 68.6%, production of 1.66 million tons, up more than a week ago, about 1%. Over the same period last year, capacity utilization was only 45.5%, slightly higher than the total output of 1.06 million tons. AISI recorded in the United States eight major regions in the six-week production in the region increased. The output is concerned, the biggest increase production in the southern region, an increase of 1.1 million tons. As the auto industry led to a steady increase in demand for SBQ bar market recovery, therefore, North America SBQ bar steel scrap surcharge increases. In addition, according to the U.S. Department of Commerce published the preliminary import data in January the United States steel imports more than 1.48 million tons, which is in January last year the highest since a record on imports.
Japan and the United States the situation is very similar, as at the end of January this year, Japan, Tokyo and Osaka, two major ports, the import volume and plate stock board by the end of December last year an increase of 6,000 tonnes (4.5%), to 14 million tons, but the there are still 43% year on year decline. Related investigations revealed that Nippon Steel and other major Japanese steel companies are expected this year, crude steel production increased by 10% over last year to 20% of total crude steel production of more than 1 million tons. According to the company's production plans this year, Nippon Steel plans to increase production 16% over last year, to 32 million tons; JFE Steel plans to increase 8 percent, to 28.2 million tons; Sumitomo Metal Industries plans to increase production 13 percent, to 13.2 million tons . It is understood that the rising cost of production is expected to lead to Tokyo Steel February 22 announced that all products in March raised the contract price 33 U.S. dollars / ton, the global steel prices rise or in full swing.
Third, the macroeconomic environment is more uncertain factors, rising steel prices are still repeated
In addition to being its own steel supply and demand effects, depends on the impact of the macroeconomic environment, China has been stressed that inflation expectations, as well as possible monetary tightening, the international debt crisis in the euro zone recurring and governments have given the withdrawal of stimulus plan This year's economic trends covered with a layer of thick fog. The author believes that trends in the economy has not changed for the better, but because of high asset prices, the government stimulus plans to gradually withdraw from other factors, the overall financial markets will not be able to avoid the oscillation increased, but the economic recovery of the pattern will continue.
China issued new loans for the excessive regulation will continue to be, and do not rule out price control, such as macro-control measures adopted, but the regulation of these policies will not change the trend of economic recovery for the steel for the contraction of credit will indeed be financing caused by traders who used to sell, but the demand and the cost of support will make the situation caused by this long steel prices will decline to provide better opportunities for admission.
To sum up, construction steel, spot sales began to pick up gradually in March, the demand will gradually appear, while the steel production capacity is relatively limited room for improvement, social and steel stocks will gradually decrease. At the same time, from a cost point of view, iron ore rose 40% have basically decided that if the spot ore prices in the shipping costs and other factors, fueled once again under the influence of higher steel prices up space will be opened. In addition, as the needs of the developed countries to pick up, yield and steel prices rising, on the one hand to pull China's steel exports, in turn acting on the other hand, an increase in the cost, therefore, steel prices will continue, the pattern of oscillation upstream.
