In 2009, faced with a serious impact on the international financial crisis, China adhere to implement a proactive fiscal policy and loose monetary policy appropriate to fully implement the package to stimulate economic growth, faster economic growth to reverse the decline of the situation and achieve the national economy the overall recovery in the right direction. Affected by this, the domestic steel market continues to pick up, supply and demand booming. Of domestic demand in the second half of 2008 out of a slump since the situation to return to strong growth trajectory; over the previous year while total exports dropped sharply, but the trend has shown up again; in the demand-driven, the output reproduction of high-growth situation.
In 2010, the domestic steel market optimistic about the overall situation. In the "steady growth, adjusting structure, promoting consumption," macro-control-oriented, China macro-economic situation will further turn for the better, the steel market operations more favorable external environment, domestic steel consumption will continue to maintain steady and rapid growth; in excess capacity contradictions are highly concerned about the iron and steel industry continues to accelerate the pace of structural adjustment of the situation, the situation of excessive growth in production will also change, growth may moderate drop in supply and demand tend to improve the situation; With the world economy gradually improved, exports will be resumed Sexual rise; in demand and the cost of supporting role, the market prices will shock upstream.
Domestic demand continued to maintain steady and rapid growth of
From the domestic macroeconomic situation shows that in 2009 China's economy continues to improve the development of the trend of recovery in the fourth quarter was further consolidated and strengthened in 2010 to maintain steady and rapid economic growth, the more realistic compared to last year, the foundation and favorable conditions for .
Specific point of view, in 2010 led a favorable factor for the domestic steel consumption, mainly in the following areas:
First, investment is expected to continue to maintain high growth. This year the state will continue to implement the proactive fiscal policy and moderate loose monetary policy, liquidity will remain relatively loose, in the projects under construction and the construction of new projects needed to have a more reliable guarantee of funds. In accordance with 4 trillion yuan investment plans, there are nearly 6,000 billion yuan this year, the central government financial investment, will drive increased investment in the whole society about 2 trillion yuan. With this year's economic structural adjustment, it will further optimize the environment for private capital investment, broaden the area of investment, lower investment costs, so that private capital will grow faster than in 2009. This steel, petrochemicals, light industry, equipment manufacturing and automotive industries such as ten revitalization plan, the new energy development plan will accelerate the implementation of this will play a stimulating effect on investment in related industries. The State Council has approved 22 city's subway construction plan, a total investment of 882 billion yuan, China has become the world's largest urban rail transit construction market.
Second, cars, home appliances and other major upstream and downstream industries in state support policy, will continue to maintain rapid growth. This year the state will remain in effect for residents of household appliances, automobiles and other consumer incentives, subsidies, standards have been increased, which will continue to drive home appliances, automobiles and other industries of steel demand growth.
Third, accelerating regional economic development, adds a new steel consumption growth. December 3 last year, with the State Council on the "eco-efficiency of the Yellow River Delta Economic Zone Development Plan," the official replied, and Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta, North Bay, Bohai Sea, west side, the three northeastern provinces, central, western and yellow triangle, etc. nine economic regions of the formation of the new map of the Chinese economy. Approved this year, eight regional economic planning, will change the proportion of China's steel consumption region in the future, to promote new growth points in steel consumption.
These favorable factors from the point of view, this year, domestic steel consumption will continue to maintain steady and rapid growth, growth is expected to remain at 15% or so.
Flat output growth tends to moderate
In recent years, China's steel industry overcapacity contradictions in the government administration has been great concern in 2009, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has repeatedly claimed that the steel industry overcapacity serious. Expected this year to curb excess capacity in the steel industry and the restructuring will become the focus control.
"The steel industry adjustment and revitalization plan" explicitly stipulates that before the end of 2010, out of 300 cubic meters and below blast furnace, 20 tons and below, converter, electric furnace production capacity 3.2 million tons. December 9 last year, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology "the existing iron and steel enterprise production and operation of access and management methods" draft pointed out that the steel industry to implement access to the existing production and operations management, in accordance with product quality, environmental protection, energy consumption, technology and equipment, size and other specific technical standards and norms strict supervision, using closed down, rectification, etc., by province, eliminate backward production capacity to implement the objectives and tasks, and assign responsibilities. At the same time, "iron and steel industry mergers and reorganization," "eliminating backward production capacity management approach" will also be gradually introduced, which will help to achieve an organic integration of iron and steel industry, enhance concentration of iron and steel industry, eliminate backward production capacity, excess capacity in the steel industry, there will be a contradiction The reduced, the basic balance between supply and demand relationship will shift.
Exports continued to rise steadily, but the uncertainty is still large
Since the fourth quarter of last year, the world's major economies, the United States, the EU economic situation continues to turn for the better, the world economy shows recovery of the dawn. The global economy this year is expected to return to normal growth, China's economic development will further improve the international environment. Comprehensive view of relevant agencies predicted that this year the world economy is expected to achieve about 3% growth, which will be conducive to the steady rise of China's steel exports.
But it must be noted that the global economic situation, even in the face better, but still a lot of uncertainty, European and American countries facing long-term, "deleveraging" (ie, companies or individuals to reduce the use of financial leverage and reduce its loan ratio of a trend), the fiscal deficit high, the lack of demand and so on, truly world economic recovery still takes time. In addition, China is facing enormous pressure of RMB appreciation, which would greatly weaken the steel products in China's export competitiveness, while international trade protectionism, China's steel exports is facing severe challenges. From these circumstances, China's steel exports rebound, still has a large uncertainty, demand driven market development will not significantly change the basic pattern.
Market price volatility up
Overall, the price of domestic steel market this year, some upside. First, this year, China's macroeconomic policy will continue to improve, domestic demand will continue to maintain steady and rapid growth; the same time as the iron and steel industry to accelerate the pace of structural adjustment, the situation of excessive growth in steel production may be changed, the market supply and demand situation is tending to improvement. Second, supporting the role of iron and steel production costs become more pronounced. Judging from the current point of view, domestic and international markets this year, crude oil, iron ore and other resources, and energy products prices will show a further increase of the potential; in a low-carbon economic development model has become a hot, hot spots in the context, the state may be through resource tax reform and mining rights to obtain compensation policies, and further increase the cost of domestic mineral resources. It may also levy a carbon tax, these factors will cause the iron and steel production costs.
However, the process still has a larger increase uncertainty, for example, inflation pressure, the hedge funds, which enabled futures, electronic disk speculation will increase the risk of fluctuations in market prices; while the international market, trade protectionism is rampant, exports do not certainty is still large; as the economic situation continued to improve, liquidity tightening is expected to rise. In addition, the state efforts to regulate and control the real estate and other industries and international markets, changes in the environment also made of steel to increase the uncertainty of market trends and so on. Given these uncertainties, this year the domestic steel market price movements will show up features of shock.
